Introducing AI 2027
Note: These are automated summaries imported from my Readwise Reader account.
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Summary
Summarized wtih ChatGPT
Scott Alexander discusses predictions about AI developments from 2025 to 2028, noting that a researcher named Daniel Kokotajlo had surprisingly accurate forecasts. He warns of potential risks, including an AI arms race between the U.S. and China, which could lead to automation and misalignment issues. The piece encourages readers to engage with the evolving AI landscape and consider the implications of rapid advancements.
Key Takeaways:
- Stay informed about AI advancements and their potential societal impacts.
- Consider the ethical implications of AI development and safety measures.
- Engage in discussions about the future of AI to contribute to informed decision-making.
Highlights from Article
The summary: we think that 2025 and 2026 will see gradually improving AI agents. In 2027, coding agents will finally be good enough to substantially boost AI R&D itself, causing an intelligence explosion that plows through the human level sometime in mid-2027 and reaches superintelligence by early 2028.
- Superintelligence by 2028
not fully nationalizing them, but pushing them into more of a defense-contractor-like relationship. China wakes up around the same time, steals the weights of the leading American AI, and maintains near-parity
- Assumes China can’t reach the weights themselves?
most of the economy is automated by ~2029. If AI is misaligned, it could move against humans as early as 2030 (ie after it’s automated enough of the economy to survive without us). If it gets aligned successfully, then by default power concentrates in a double-digit number of tech oligarchs and US executive branch members; this group is too divided to be crushingly dictatorial, but its reign could still fairly be described as technofeudalism. Humanity starts colonizing space at the very end of the 2020s / early 2030s.
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